Labor Shortage: Fact or Myth?
Paul in Cannon Beach
4,703 Posts
For awhile, many experts have been predicting a severe labor shortage as the baby boomer generation (nearly 80 million) reaches retirement. Depending on how you read the numbers we could see a labor shortage of epic proportions or nothing at all.
Some have predicted that there could be up to 10 million more jobs than workers. Others say that factors such as outsourcing and efficiency will reduce the number of jobs and thus ease any labor shortage.
From what I can tell, the Boomer generation (80 million) is followed by Generation X (46 million) and then the Millenials (76 million). So, it would seem that there would be a gap between the time the Boomers retire and the millenials begin having any real impact on the workforce.
Personally, I do believe we will see a severe shortage but it won't be across the board. For example, I think we will see a sharp downturn in the availability of skilled labor and competent service workers. Just my guess though.
What, if anything, are you doing to prepare? Are you taking this seriously or do you think this is just hype?
Some have predicted that there could be up to 10 million more jobs than workers. Others say that factors such as outsourcing and efficiency will reduce the number of jobs and thus ease any labor shortage.
From what I can tell, the Boomer generation (80 million) is followed by Generation X (46 million) and then the Millenials (76 million). So, it would seem that there would be a gap between the time the Boomers retire and the millenials begin having any real impact on the workforce.
Personally, I do believe we will see a severe shortage but it won't be across the board. For example, I think we will see a sharp downturn in the availability of skilled labor and competent service workers. Just my guess though.
What, if anything, are you doing to prepare? Are you taking this seriously or do you think this is just hype?
Comments
Linda
Rid the country of 12 million illegal foreign nationals and there will be someone available to fill the slot at some price. The "at sum price" will be passed on to the product or service provided. With higher starting wages you will find the good people out here working flow to the open positions paying good money and benefits and we want miss a beat.
I am more worried about the future of our world and life of living under the words written in "Revelations"!!!! These words are being more clearily revealed everyday>
May you and the rest of us have a Blessed day. I have got to run and deliver about 10 billion sperm to a complex that is just about out of semen to use. No semen no "piglet", no "job", no "business".
PORK
Way, way, way too much information. I don't even want to think about what you mean by "deliver".
PORK
So basically all of you boomers either don't think the labor shortage is an issue or don't care because you will be on a golf course somewhere sunny.
Meanwhile, I'll be giving out $1,000 signing bonuses for new hires who can tie their own shoes and don't pee in scrap bins until the year 2030 when I can retire.
I don't think the labor shortage will be that severe. The past decade has seen great improvement in the efficient use of labor. This was borne out in the economy coming to life with a definite "lag" in new hiring. When you have the dynamics of technology, lean, 5-S, and (insert buzzword of your choice) working as they have been, it doesn't point toward a labor shortage. More and more companies are using technology and training to manage their growth, rather than throwing people at it.
Also, don't dismiss the Boomers so quickly. This is a much more health conscious and active generation than the past generations. Christ, I'm in better shape than my kids are and can outrun every damn one of them. My dream is not to drive an RV to Arizona every year or sit in a double wide down in Florida. Give me the adrenelin that a healthy dose of stress will give me and the echo of the words from my peers and superiors, "We better see what Larry thinks about this." I'm needed. There's nothing more rewarding than that.
There, Paul. Do we have this thread back on track?
My guess is companies will get creative (its already starting) in pulling boomers back out of retirement or encouraging them to delay retirement.
I also predict a surge in volunteerism as active boomers finally make good on their "make the world a better place" activism of the 1960s. Socially conscious boomers who are financially stable and not ready to buy a rocking chair could provide a tremendous source of volunteers.
One concern is whether our schools and universities are adequately preparing the next generation of workers. I think the combination of affluence and distraction is creating a generation of young people who don't have the focus or motivation to truly succeed. I could be wrong. I hope so.
Yes, I might have accidently hijacked this thread, I have been known to do that to keep the tone of the forum active and educational. It still touches on the original post.
In your own "worlds of work" you should look at the positive and what will you do when my world is overtaking your world with great jobs and great compensation?
My day has again been Blessed, the good Lord let me live through at least one more day. Tonight is another story and the week-end is coming on strong. Ya'll come back to read us next week!
PORK
PS: We produced 12,582 "piglets" last week and we are headed for 13,000 a week by the end of the year. Ya'll eat mo PORK, u hear!
It's not a lot, but perhaps a start.
#1. The boomers will work longer than retirement age because they have better health and because many of them are not prepared financially for retirement and do not trust the social security system.
#2. Even when the boomers retire they will still want to work part time. This could cause companies to hire two part time boomers to fill one full time position. A strange thought, but it could work. We have two part time young people filling one full time job now.
#3. I do believe that automation and outsourceing will also play a role and cause fewer technical jobs to be there needing to be filled.
#4. Many women that have been raising families will see them off to college or on thier own and be available to enter the workforce. I can see in the next 5 years many more women in the workplace.
#5. Many companies are now hiring College Students part time to fill positions. This is called an internship and it is valuable to both the company and the college student getting the needed work experience. I just looked into it last week and we are going to try a second year business accounting student from a local college to help out in our Accounting department for a while and see how it works.
#6. Many of the new immigrants coming to America will be looking for jobs and our immigration is not slowing down anytime soon. Not all of them are illiterate, some of them actually can and do work and do a very good job. I believe in giving them a chance. At one point in time we were all immigrants..(were we not?).
And Pork I do love my pork chops...keep them coming...smothered in mushroom gravy....cooked in the slow pot with sage, parsley and some lemon pepper.
Shirley